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Sports Betting Success - the EV

sports-bettingThe EV is the key to success in every form of gambling. The EV is basically the expected value, or the amount of money a player can mathematically expect to win or lose on every bet that he makes. The expected value can be positive - in which case the player enjoys an advantage over the house or the player against whom he bets, or negative - which is mostly the case in casino gambling. In sports betting, like in poker, players can manipulate the expected value through skill. Indeed, just going ahead and placing a bet on any match-up that catches one's fancy for whatever reason is not the way to go about wagering. Those who are long term, consistent winners, are bettors known as advantage players. These guys take their time and do their research digging up match-ups where they're able to beat the vig - which is basically the bookie's edge. These players are only betting when they know that they have EV on their side. What exactly is EV though?

Here's a small example that will explain the EV better than anything else: you flip a coin with a friend (a 50-50 outcome event) and you're wagering real money on every flip. Every single time, you wager $2 against his $1 though. This way, your opponent will enjoy a positive expected value of $0.5 on every coin-flip. Here's why: with a 50-50 event like a coin-flip, you will win every second bet on average. While over the short-run, there will certainly be deviations from this rule, at the end of the day, you will win 50% of the time regardless what you do. What that means is that you'll drop $2 over two bets and win $1 for a total loss of $1. Your loss is your opponent's profit though. He takes home $1 for every two bets, which is $0.5 for every bet. That's his positive expected value right there. If you demand to wager $1 against your opponent's $1, both of your EVs will be 0, as you'll be betting 50-50 on a 50-50 event. If you continued betting $1 on an event with an outcome that favored one party though, the EV would once again lean towards the favored party. The bottom line: without having EV+ on a bet, it doesn't really make any mathematical sense to go ahead with it.

How do sharps secure EV+ in sports betting? It's not easy. It has to do with the hidden value, which is very real indeed, but which is extremely difficult to find. It takes time, patience and rock-solid handicapping as well as reverse handicapping skills. These are a handful of traits that your average recreational sports bettor just doesn't possess.

Of course, it doesn't hurt to stick to bet-types where the hidden value surfaces easier. These are bets that bookmakers find it more difficult or simply not lucrative enough to handicap as thoroughly as they would like to.

On account if their diversity prop bets fit into this category as do teasers.
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Variance in sports betting

sportsbook-makerPeople bet on sports to win money. Even recreational gamblers aim to score some dough, after all that is the object of the game and if one only loses, the game stops being enjoyable. If you win, it means you're playing the game well. You're good at it and there's quite a bit of satisfaction that comes with that.

Successful bettors will tell you that bankroll management has to go hand in hand with proper handicapping and reverse handicapping skills. Regardless of how good one is at locating value in various match-ups, without proper bankroll management all those efforts will be in vain: he won't be able to beat the variance.

In order to understand how bankroll management should work, one needs to understand variance. Beating the variance is the ultimate goal of every successful sports bettor, but it's a much trickier undertaking than it would seem at first glance.

What exactly is the variance through? Variance is basically the difference between various outcomes of the same event over several instances. Variance can be low - in which case the numbers are tightly spread. High variance is about numbers spread on a much larger scale. If one plays a with a certain edge, betting smaller amounts spread out over several bets makes for lower variance than betting large amounts on a few match-ups. For a sports bettor, the lower the variance is the better it is and this is where we enter bankroll management territory.

Regardless of whether the variance is high or low, the overall results will even up in time, on a large sample-size. Over smaller sample-sizes, variance tends to be high and this is the key to sports betting bankroll management right here. Even though results do even out over the long-run, sports bettors must have small short-term variance, for the simple reason that their bankrolls are finite. If you have large short-term variance, you're highly likely to wreck your bankroll before you can achieve the larger sample-size over which your results even out. You simply won't be around long enough to see your edges yield any sort of results for you.

In sports betting, the edges tend to be extremely small, which means one really does have to place a huge number of bets to see his edges prevail over the variance (which by the way is much higher in sports betting than it is in betting the stock market for instance).

The reason why most sharps recommend that you only bet around 3-5% of your bankroll on a given game (regardless of how strong you feel about it) is that they know you have to squeeze as many individual bets into your bankroll as possible in order to tame the variance.

The bottom line is that regardless of how capable you are of diminishing the effects of variance, you have to be prepared to deal with it if you intend to make money betting on sports. It may be evil, but it's a necessary evil indeed.
Take your sports betting online, where you will enjoy various bonuses and poker rake rebate-like loyalty deals that will further chip away at the variance and the juice. If you turn around enough money, you may even end up in a setup similar to a poker prop. What's a poker prop? A poker prop is a player who gets outlandish rewards in exchange for the time (and money) he spends at the site

Parlay Bets - Are They for Suckers?

sportsbookParlay bets are quite popular, among sharps as well as among squares. The concept behind parleys is quite simple really: instead of betting on say 3 individual teams, the bettor groups his 3 bets together, for a potentially increased payout and for reducing the risk factor. While some regard parlays as a sucker's bet, others swear by it. The bottom line is that there is a proper way to bet parlays and there's a wrong way. It takes patience and willingness to learn to be able to make proper parlay bets which are not destined the fail.

The thing with parley bets is that in order to get the max return, the bettor needs to win each and every one of his bets. If one or more of the bets turn out to be pushes, the payout takes a hit. If one of the bets turns out to be a loss, the whole thing goes down the drain.

What exactly are the odds for parlay bets? For 2-game parlays, the odds are 2.6-1. For 8 team ones they skyrocket to 150-1. The payouts are not bad indeed, bit it takes a lot more to get several bets right than just one. These are the general Las Vegas odds and the odds tend to be the same online, with the exception of a few sportsbooks where the payouts may be a little better. These odds are calculated on 50/50 propositions.

How exactly should you go about your parlays then? Which are sucker bets and which aren't? 2-3 team parlays are rarely sucker bets therefore that's what you should stick to. With 8 teams in the equation, the odds take a hit: stay away from those.

Why should you avoid some parlays? Here are a few reasons: some parlays work as progressive betting systems, and I hope I needn't tell you about why those don't really work. Sharps generally go for their quantified game-by-game edge, which is all about bet-sizing. Getting the bet-sizing right for parlays is quite a bit of work and there may or may not be any upside to it, so at the end of the day, it's not really worth the effort.

In addition to that, the odds on parlays are pretty much the same as those on single bets, but the variance is obviously much greater. For the same odds, it's a no brainer to go with the lower variance.

Another problem is line-shopping. Sharp bettors know that in order to maximize their edges, they need to shop around for the best available lines. This often means that they end up placing bets at several online bookies. In the case of a parlay, one would have to hunt down the best lines on the same site, which isn't possible, so the parlay bettor will end up trading value for the possibility of placing the bet.

There are advantages to parlay bets too. Some online bookmakers will look to draw bettors to their parlays by featuring reduced vig on these bets.

Many online bookmakers offer free play bonuses, which are best taken advantage of through parlays.

Taking your sports betting online is always a winning proposition. Not only do you get better odds, you also get to take advantage of sign-up bonuses and poker rake rebate-like loyalty deals. High volume players may also get unique deals which can often be as generous as a poker prop deal.


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Sports Betting - Maximizing Value

PinnacleSports.com Online Sports BettingSports betting is simply about picking a winner for most people. After all, he who manages to get his money into the middle on the right side of a match-up, time and time again, will obviously walk away with a profit. The problem however is a much more complex one. Those in the know are adept at maximizing value. They know whether it's better to bet on the money line or on the point spread, and they don't just do it because they have a gut feeling about it. They do it because they have developed an actual strategy. They reach deeper into the bag of tricks and they explore opportunities offered by prop bets, half points, first half betting lines and teasing.

Shopping around for the best lines is just as important as proper handicapping regardless of whether we're talking about NFL or NBA games here or any other sport. This is where most players have a huge hole in their betting strategy. They do the handicapping, they uncover the hidden value and then they forget about maximizing the value in their bets by taking a little bit of extra time to shop around for the lines. In this day and age, shopping around is a cinch for everyone. There are a plethora of online betting sites out there and they all work out their own lines. While the differences will never be radical, there will be differences nonetheless, which will be amplified by the system and which will generate rather different results in the end. As a successful sports bettor, you owe it to yourself to shop around for the best available lines. Picking the winner is not enough: one needs to make enough to beat the vig. The vig is quite probably the biggest enemy of the skilled sports bettor. By shopping around for the lines and by optimizing this aspect of your handicapping, you will pretty much do away with the effects of the vig completely.

The importance of the half point is something every sports bettor who hopes to succeed has to understand. When the prize is equal, picking the line with the extra half point is easy. When the price differs though, that's when the bettor needs to pull out his NFL database and get down to number-crunching. Only when one truly understands the value of the half point will he be able to decide whether or not it's worth it to buy a half point for however much the online sportsbook sells it.

Often times it makes sense to bet against certain teams on the first half line rather than on the endgame one. Some teams are slow starters and stronger finishers than others.

Prop bets will often hide excellent value too. Some online bookies offer prop lines derived from the primary betting lines of the match-up.

Alternate lines and parlays may also be additional sources of value for the savvy bettor.
In online poker, the best way to maximize the value is through a poker rakeback deal. Poker props earn outstanding rakeback percentages.

Super Bowl XLV: Steelers vs. Packers

NFLGEN1M250x160.gifIt's finally here: Super Bowl XLV is set to kickoff this Sunday in the new Cowboys stadium outside Dallas. Green Bay are big moneyline and slight spread favorites, despite Pittsburgh's championship pedigree. With two dominant defenses the odds favor a low TOTAL score. Any way you slice it there are two teams playing four quarters and dozens of ways to win on Super Sunday.

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NFL Wildcard Weekend

Play BetEdThe best football weekend of the year is just days away, with four games scheduled for the NFL's Wild Card, the most intriguing of which is the matchup for the NFC Wild Card that pits the up and down packers against the up and down Eagles. Both teams can score, but will either defense show up? The Wild Card teams can hardly be described as underdogs as they usually are. The Ravens, the Jets, the Packers and the Saints all have defenses rated in the top-10 in the league. They also have true leaders at QB. Green Bay's offense is centered around Aaron Rogers. The Raven's Joe Flacco and NY's Mark Sanchez have both proven themselves in post-season situations. The Saint's Drew Brees is the defending Super Bowl MVP.

Plus there's some big NCAAF Bowl Games coming up, including the much-anticipated BCS National Championship matchup between undefeated Oregon vs. undefeated Auburn.

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Odds to Win the Indy 500

One of the biggest racing days of the year is just around the corner as the Indy 500 is slated for this Sunday. Fans are in hot pursuit of info and looking for answers regarding their favorite drivers. This being the case, the largest most successful sportsbook on the web, BetUS.com posted odds on every possible scenario!

"Our site users love the Indy 500," stated BetUS.com spokesman Reed Richards. "We see tons of action on the race every year and this year is no different. Our analysts are on top of all of the action and have even posted odds on potential out of car showdowns and potential fights!"

Oddsmakers at BetUS.com posted the following odds on the Indy 500:

NHL Hocky Playoffs

BetEd NHLThe Bruins, who are poised to win their first playoff series in 10 years, will get their first chance to finish off the Canadiens in Game 4 on Wednesday night.

Coming into the series, the seventh-seeded Rangers were the decided underdogs against the Washington Capitals, but New York owned a clear advantage in goal with three-time Vezina Trophy finalist Henrik Lundqvist. Tonights game could level the series?

The Calgary Flames will try to even their series with Chicago Blackhawks at two games apiece Wednesday night but they're also aware that tempers are going to be very short - as this series has been full of trash talk.

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Internet Gambling Flourishes

Super Bowl Report: Internet Gambling Flourishes Despite Prohibition

Several articles highlight how millions of American go online to wager on sports, including the Super Bowl, and other games despite attempts the prohibit the activity. It is estimated that more than $10 billion in wagers on the Super Bowl were made online worldwide, legally and illegally, according to Pregame.com.

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